Weekly Market Update Into July 6th: Chips Cracked, the Index Held

Markets chopped all week and finished mostly flat at the index level, though under the surface it was anything but calm. SPY still managed to close up about 2% while the tech-heavy QQQ lagged with a gain under 1%. The real damage was in semiconductors, where memory names like Micron (MU) took heat from a mix of profit taking and a weak Friday jobs number. Meta’s new plan to sell off its excess AI compute added fuel, hitting neocloud stocks like Nebius (NBIS) hard and bleeding into the broader semi space. Even with the rotation, SPY is still holding above its 100-day and 200-day SMAs, so the regime filter stays on and new entries remain valid.

Looking ahead, the calendar is light with FOMC minutes on Wednesday as the one event worth watching for any read on the rate path. Outside of that it should be a relatively quiet week, so price action and the ongoing rotation will likely drive the tape more than headlines. As always, stay alert to any surprise war or policy headlines that can swing this market either direction. View the full economic calendar here.

Top 3 Daily Pivot Scan Results

HIMS (Hims & Hers Health)

• Daily pivot breakout on 7/1/26. Relative performance ripped from sub-10 to 75 in just a couple of weeks.
• Bull case: Historically a fast top-line grower (+70% to +110% YoY through 2025) with roughly 65-80% gross margins and a strong brand in the telehealth and GLP-1 weight-loss theme.
• Bear case: Growth has collapsed to +3.8% revenue YoY in Q1’26 with a swing to a -$0.40 EPS loss and negative free cash flow, and with a regulatory GLP-1 overhang and another loss estimated next quarter it is the highest-risk name of the three.

RDDT (Reddit)

• Daily pivot breakout on 7/1/26, firing on a purple momentum candle after a roughly 50% correction, then turning blue the next day as momentum strengthened.
• Bull case: Revenue has grown around 69% YoY for six straight quarters with gross margins near 90%, and the AI data-licensing story is still very much intact.
• Bear case: Heavily dependent on ad revenue and Google search traffic, with growth decelerating off huge comps and a valuation that prices in perfection, and 7/30 earnings are a binary risk.

HOOD (Robinhood Markets)

• Daily pivot breakout on 7/2/26 on a purple momentum candle, so one filter has flipped bullish while the other is still bearish, an early-stage setup rather than a confirmed one.
• Bull case: Explosive revenue growth with multiple quarters of +45% to +100%+ YoY, operating margins running 38% to 51%, and a TAM that keeps expanding across crypto, futures, prediction markets, banking, Gold subscriptions, and tokenization.
• Bear case: Highly cyclical and sentiment-driven since revenue is tied to trading and crypto volumes, Q1’26 revenue missed estimates by 6% with growth slowing to +15% from +69%, and 7/29 earnings carry gap risk.

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Resources

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