Trading Week Preview May 18 to May 21: FOMC Minutes, NVDA Earnings, and a Retail Trifecta

This is a stacked week. FOMC Minutes drop Wednesday at 2pm ET, NVDA reports after the bell the same afternoon, and the entire retail giant cohort piles into the same 48 hours. Below is the day-by-day breakdown of what is moving and what to actually watch.

What Happened Last Week

Friday closed ugly. Bond yields spiked, the Trump-Xi summit ended with no chip agreement, and chip names led the selloff. NVDA, AMD, and INTC all closed red. Cerebras IPO printed +68% on debut as the lone wild card. Bitcoin floated sideways, refusing to commit ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC risk. Markets enter this week digesting all of it.

Key Takeaways

• Wednesday is the single most loaded day of Q2, with FOMC Minutes at 2pm ET and NVDA earnings after the close.
• Retail giants HD, TGT, LOW, and TJX all report inside 48 hours, giving a clean read on consumer health under tariff pressure.
• Thursday’s open is the NVDA hangover. Whatever direction the gap takes likely sets the tone for the rest of May.

Monday, May 18: Quiet Open and China Tech

The first two earnings of the week come from China and Europe before the open. Baidu (BIDU) reports pre-market with EPS estimates near $1.69 and revenue around $4.7B. It is the first major China tech read of the week, and after Friday’s no-deal headline tape, the print carries extra weight. Ryanair (RYAAY) follows pre-market with revenue estimates near $2.9B, giving a clean read on European travel demand.

Outside earnings, the tape spends most of Monday digesting Friday’s pullback. Chip names led the selloff on the no-chip-deal headline plus rising yields plus sticky inflation prints. Watch how NVDA, AMD, and INTC act into Tuesday’s open. A flat to green Monday close ahead of Wednesday says positioning is leaning bullish. A continued grind lower says traders are de-risking before the FOMC plus NVDA event.

Tuesday, May 19: Home Depot Sets the Consumer Tone

Home Depot (HD) reports pre-market Tuesday. EPS estimates sit near $3.41 on revenue around $41.5B. Last quarter HD printed $3.45 on EPS. Market cap is roughly $378B with a P/E near 25.7. Piper Sandler is Overweight with a $421 price target.

The print matters for more than HD shareholders. HD is the cleanest read available on housing affordability, DIY consumer spending, and how aggressively tariffs are pushing building material costs through to the end customer. If management sounds cautious on housing or flags tariff cost pass-through, that filters straight into how the market reads TGT and LOW on Wednesday.

After the close, Toll Brothers (TOL) reports with EPS estimates near $2.58 and revenue near $2.4B, another homebuilder read with mortgage rates still elevated. CAVA reports with EPS near $0.17 and revenue near $418.6M, the fast-casual momentum name traders keep coming back to. Confluent (CFLT) closes Tuesday’s print list, with EPS near $0.06 and revenue near $321M, the AI infrastructure data play.

Wednesday, May 20: The Big One

Wednesday is the day. There is no other way to frame it.

FOMC Minutes drop at 2pm ET from the May 7 meeting where the Fed held rates. After last week’s CPI print plus rising oil and rising yields, the market is pricing in a real stagflation narrative. Any hawkish tone shift in the Minutes lights up the tape immediately. The reaction in 2-year yields will tell you more than any pundit take.

NVDA reports after the bell. EPS estimates near $1.76 on revenue near $79.1B. Last quarter NVDA put up $1.75 EPS at a 63% net margin. Market cap is roughly $4.5T with a P/E near 45.7. TD Cowen raised the price target to $275 with a Buy rating. The four questions every trader is watching: (1) China H200 sales status given no chip deal, (2) data center demand trajectory, (3) Blackwell ramp updates, (4) guidance. Prediction markets are leaning bullish on NVDA topping $240 post-earnings, but that is a one-sided crowd.

Pre-market Wednesday also brings the retail trifecta. Target (TGT) reports with EPS estimates near $1.34 on revenue near $24.3B. Last quarter TGT printed $2.30 EPS, so the margin compression story is fully baked in at a P/E near 13.2. TJX reports with EPS near $1.00 on revenue near $14.0B, the value retail name that keeps winning at a P/E near 32.8. Lowe’s (LOW) reports with EPS near $2.96 on revenue near $22.9B, the home improvement double-header with Tuesday’s HD. Add Analog Devices (ADI) with EPS near $2.90 on revenue near $3.5B for the semis cycle read, and Intuit (INTU) post-market with EPS near $12.28 on revenue near $8.5B for the tax season plus AI tools watch.

If you are trading one event Wednesday, the FOMC Minutes plus NVDA double-stack is what you size around. Everything else feeds the narrative.

Thursday, May 21: The NVDA Hangover

Thursday’s open is the entire week’s referee. If NVDA guides strong on data center demand plus Blackwell, and FOMC Minutes do not deliver a hawkish surprise, the AI trade re-accelerates and risk-on resumes. If either disappoints, the elevated valuations across mega-cap tech start showing up as a real broad selloff.

INTU’s post-Wednesday print spills into Thursday morning, along with ELF Beauty (which reported Wednesday post-market) and Hologic (HOLX, from Tuesday post-market). Weekly jobless claims hit in the pre-market window, and given the stagflation narrative building under the surface, the number actually matters this week.

Trade Thursday off the NVDA gap, not the headline. Where the print settles in the first 30 minutes tells you more than any analyst note.

How to Track a Week Like This

Weeks with this much event risk are exactly where journaling shows its value. Wednesday alone will generate more trade ideas, more positions, and more revisions than the rest of May combined. Track the entry, the thesis, the size, and the exit on every trade, then come back Friday and look at what worked. Most of the edge comes from reviewing, not from the original idea. For historical context on how event-driven weeks have moved markets, the best days in stock market history all share the same pattern: a macro catalyst plus a tech catalyst hitting inside a 48-hour window. This week qualifies.

FAQ

What time do FOMC Minutes drop on Wednesday May 20?

The FOMC Minutes from the May 7 meeting release at 2pm ET on Wednesday, May 20. Watch the 2-year yield reaction in the first 15 minutes for the cleanest signal on whether the tone was hawkish or balanced.

What time does NVDA report earnings on May 20?

NVIDIA reports after the market close on Wednesday, May 20. The earnings release typically hits around 4:20pm ET, with the conference call starting at 5pm ET. The post-market reaction usually finishes pricing in by 6pm ET.

Which retail earnings should I watch this week?

The four to track: Home Depot (HD) Tuesday pre-market, then Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), and TJX all Wednesday pre-market. HD sets the consumer health tone, LOW pairs directly with HD, TGT carries the margin compression story, and TJX represents value retail.

Is this the biggest trading week of the quarter?

Yes. Wednesday alone stacks FOMC Minutes plus NVDA earnings plus four major retail prints inside one 24-hour window. No other day on the Q2 calendar concentrates this much event risk in a single session.